How to answer "When will it be done?" using probabilistic forecasting.

Presented by: Chris Shinkle

"When will it be done?" How often have you been asked that question? That question strikes fear or frustration in most people. It often results in throwing up your hands in frustration or tossing out a wild guess. Surely there's a better way?

Forget story points, t-shirt sizing, historical averages. Have you considered building a simple forecasting model—one that provides a range of possible outcomes with confidence levels?

Whether you're a developer, project manager, or scrum master, it's important we can answer this question confidently in a way that provides clarity and predictability. We can do that by applying techniques like Monte Carlo simulation and continuous forecasting. 

In this talk, we'll explore those practices and discuss how you can leverage them no matter your role. I'll share a few models and spreadsheets we use with our clients including examples. We'll walk through how to use these to support better communication and consider what-if scenarios. You'll leave with a practical set of tools you can start using tomorrow! 

Answering the question "When will it be done?" will no longer create frustration or fear like it once did.

Tags: Agile, Project Management, VelocityLevel: Intermediate